Photovoltaic Outlook 2021Keywords: grid parity + carbon neutral
Overall gird parity of PV power will help the world achieve carbon neutrality. The photovoltaic industry will maintain a high boom in 2021, and the global installed capacity is expected to be 160GW, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year.
On the one hand, as the cost of photovoltaic power generation decreases year by year, it is now possible to achieve grid parity, so the photovoltaic market demand is expected to usher in a greater outbreak. In 2021, the global photovoltaic power cost is expected to be reduced by 43% compared with 2019, reaching $0.04/kWh. All regions of the world will usher in the era of parity. On the other hand, the penetration ratio of PV power is small, and it will become the mainstream power generation source in the future, and the market potential is huge. The green and clean feature of PV power is also in line with the sustainable development goals of all countries in the world.
China proposes to strive to achieve a carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The "14th Five-Year Plan" strives to achieve peak or even negative growth in coal consumption; non-fossil energy sources account for about 20%, and total energy consumption is controlled within 5.5 billion tce. According to this calculation, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaics can reach 70GW+.
In Europe, emission reduction targets have been continuously improved. In September 2020, the "2030 Climate Goal Plan" pointed out that renewable energy will account for 38% to 40% of final energy consumption by 2030.
In the United States, after being elected, Biden will announce that he will rejoin the Paris Agreement. On November 18, 2020, the American Solar Energy Industry Association proposed to Biden to cancel Trump’s tariffs on imported equipment and propose to pass legislation to extend the agreement. A key federal tax credit policy for the solar industry.
In general, under the expectations of China, the United States and Europe, it is estimated that the global PV installed capacity will increase by 34% in 2021, achieving the highest growth in the past ten years. The three regions in China, Europe and the United States are expected to account for 67% of PV installed capacity.
PS. On December 9th, the deputy director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration stated that "the 14th Five-Year Plan for PV space is far beyond the 13th Five-Year Plan, and this is a great opportunity for everyone here." The Photovoltaic Association gave the official "14th Five-Year Plan" guidelines for the first time: annual average 70-90GW which is double of China’s installed capacity of 48.2GW in 2020.